Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the political and economic landscape in a few short weeks. A lot has been written and said about it – much of it foolish – and we still don’t know where it will take us. The only thing that seems certain is a lot of death and destruction for Ukraine and its people.
Some have said the invasion is solely or mostly the doing of Vladimir Putin, but others have noted that Putin’s decision to invade simply carries out a long-standing mindset and goal of many in Russia. Some pundits have said the invasion was unprovoked; others disagree. Some have blamed European and American government weakness; others disagree. Some say we need to give Putin some sort of face-saving way out of the conflict; others say he doesn’t want an “off ramp” but rather a battlefield and political victory. To a certain extent, none of that matters since Putin has invaded and the war is ongoing.
So, what now for America and the West?
- Widespread Condemnation – Many countries and businesses around the world have condemned Russia’s actions. That’s good, and encouraging. But many countries have either not condemned Russia, or have simply mildly disapproved of the conflict without indicating which party is wrong. There was a UN resolution condemning the invasion: “Ultimately, the resolution passed overwhelmingly by a vote of 141-5 with 35 abstentions. The five countries that voted against it were Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea.” India & China, and others who we sometimes regard as our friends, have not strongly condemned Russia. Those 35 countries who abstained are going to be helping Russia behind the scenes, and sometimes in public.
- Propaganda – Wartime brings lots of propaganda and media everywhere are playing their part, supporting who they think (or are required to say) are the good guys and demonizing the bad guys. The Ukrainians are so very fortunate to have a president who has risen to the occasion and is very helpful in winning the propaganda war. He’s inspiring and seems to be playing his cards as best he can. The result so far is that public opinion in the West has been much more critical of Russia than when Putin invaded Crimea; then there was only very modest criticism and minor consequences for Russia. However, we need to remember that what we’re seeing and hearing in the West is weighted in favor of pro-Ukraine propaganda, and that the truth is sometimes hard to see, particularly in the short run.
- NATO – What role does NATO have here? Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but NATO – and the reason for NATO – is quite relevant. This is a challenge for NATO and NATO needs to reassess the relative positions of Russia and NATO. USA should not drop out of NATO, but the European members need to step up. Any number of US leaders have been saying this for many years, to no effect. The biggest problem seems to have been Germany. Germany should lead, but because of a decades-long policy of building ties to Russia – the most prominent of which is dependence on Russian natural gas supplies – Germany refused to lead. The invasion of Ukraine has changed that balance of opinion in Germany and among the NATO countries, at least in the short run.
- US Military – Direct US military intervention should only occur when it’s important to our own national security interests, and I have yet to hear responsible speakers say that Russia conquering Ukraine is in that category. NATO has a different set of considerations, but so far, they too seem to have prudently held back since Ukraine is not a NATO member.
- Military Supplies – Although probably too little and too late, the West is supplying the Ukraine military. I’m not sure how long it can continue, but its a key factor in allowing Ukraine to resist. The risk, of course, is similar to to the risks of directly supporting military action – supplying the Ukraine military is akin to fighting directly against Russia, something the West has decided not to do.
- Intelligence – The very best thing I saw out of the Biden administration in the run-up to the invasion was to widely and consistently broadcast its intelligence assessment of what the Russians were up to. It didn’t stop an invasion, but made it clear beyond doubt Putin is an evil aggressor. I expect we’ll continue to try to keep the public pressure on in this way; this is another facet of the propaganda war.
- Cyberwar – I suspect there’s a fair bit of this underway, as well as sizing-up what could be done next. Elon Musk’s Starlink makes the news, and we hear stories about hackers attacking Russian websites, etc., but we’re not likely to hear the details of the military stuff anytime soon.
- Economic Sanctions – I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the quickness and depth and breadth of the economic sanctions imposed by the West. They may bite enough to change things over time, but by then, Ukraine may be under Russian control and then what do we do – leave Russia in the same political sanction doghouse as North Korea? Until when?
- Oil & Gas – This may be the key factor. Oil & gas revenue alone may be sufficient to keep the Russian government afloat and keep it from changing its course. Direct oil & gas purchases by the West have not stopped yet. US will halt purchases of Russian oil and gas, but the amounts are modest. And, even if all direct purchases by the West of Russian oil were halted, it would filter out indirectly into world markets through friendly countries, as has been the case under Iraqi, Iranian and Venezuelan oil sanctions. Few other countries can supply additional oil & gas immediately to replace Russian production and the one big exception – Saudi Arabia – has said its not interested in undercutting its economic ally, Russia. (Not to mention the shame and humiliation of seeing our president and his administration begging the Saudi’s to take his call, or the longer-term kissing-up to Venezuela’s and Iran’s despots, hoping they’ll save our bacon.)
- Humanitarian Relief – Of course, we should be doing this, and lots of it. I think we are, so far. This is one area where individuals can “do something.” Any number of religious and charitable groups are working to get supplies into the country and help with the millions of refugees, both in Ukraine and in neighboring countries.
There’s no particularly good and feasible US action or reaction here that will save Ukraine. We live in a fallen and sinful world. Evil is out there. We must be smart. We must act where we can. We must pray for God to change hearts and bring peace.
What Are We To Make of This? 